What effect will the Donkey Vote have on this Election?

Now that the positions on the ballot papers are known, it appears that the donkey vote could well determine who wins the House of Representative seats in South Australia as well as the Senate.

For the seven most marginal seats in this State, the luck of the draw has favoured the Liberals who have gained a higher position on the ballot paper than the ALP in five of these seats. This could assist the Liberals win Hindmarsh, Kingston and Wakefield, but enable the ALP to hold onto Adelaide.

For the Senate, of the major contenders Nick Xenophon has drawn well compared to the Greens, ALP and Liberals (last group position). This should ensure that not only is Senator Xenophon re-elected, but expand his surplus quota to be a real wild card in determining the last Senate position.

The Electoral Reform Society of South Australia is calling for a change in the electoral rules so that in future the Robson Rotation is used.

Mr Deane Crabb, Secretary of the Society said, It is absurd that the draw for places on the ballot-paper can determine the result.

It is estimated that at this electorate for the House of Representatives in South Australia the donkey vote is worth at least 2,000 to 3,000 votes.*

The Robson Rotation needs to be introduced so that no one candidate is favoured by being listed in the top position (or bottom or second) on the ballot paper, and that the views of those who have real preferences among the candidates actually influence the result.

The Robson Rotation is the process of rotating the order of candidates names on the ballot paper so that favoured positions (especially top position) are shared equally between all candidates.

* In the Australian Electoral Commission publication Democracy Rules the donkey vote is estimated to be 2 – 3% of the vote.

DONKEYS TO HELP LIBS RETAIN KEY SEATS

Winning a high spot on the ballot paper and hence getting the Donkey vote could be enough for the Liberal Party to retain control of Light, Mawson, Newland, Stuart and Unley in the March 18 State Election.

At the last Federal election in South Australia Labor won Hindmarsh while the Liberals won Kingston with the assistance of the donkey vote. Nationally there were five seats where the donkey vote determined the winner.

Now that the positions on the ballot papers for the House of Assembly are known, it appears that the donkey vote could well determine who wins the marginal electorates in the forthcoming State Election.

For the 16 marginal seats (held by a margin of less than 6%), it appears that overall the luck of the draw has favoured neither side. However, it will now be easier for the Liberals to retain Light, Mawson, Newland and Stuart. While not classified as marginal, by winning top position this should also help the Liberal candidate to retain Unley.

The Electoral Reform Society of South Australia is calling for a change in the electoral rules so that in future the Robson Rotation is used.

Mr Deane Crabb, Secretary of the Society said, “It is absurd that the draw for places on the ballot-paper can determine the result.”

“The State Electoral Office believes that the donkey vote is worth two to three per cent.

“The Robson Rotation needs to be introduced so that no one candidate is favoured by being listed in the top position (or bottom or second) on the ballot paper, and that the views of those who have real preferences among the candidates actually influence the result.”

The Robson Rotation is the process of rotating the order of candidate’s names on the ballot paper so that favoured positions (especially top position) are shared equally between all candidates.